Why is Labour’s by-election campaign struggling?

Trouble up north? Having successfully blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, there are rumours that the party is finding it difficult to persuade disaffected Labour MPs to go and campaign there.

Although it is usually a safe seat, there are strong challenges from the Green Party and Reform UK, and there is still the chance of a dramatic intervention by George Galloway on behalf of the Workers Party. It will be one of the livelier, if not also most vicious contests of recent times…

There’s obvious demoralisation derived from miserable poll ratings, speculation about the leadership and, in this part of the country, a feeling that the party in London isn’t listening to demands for Andy Burnham to bring his talents to Westminster.

Some 50 MPs signed a letter complaining about how Burnham was treated in his aborted Commons bid. Some Labour MPs have revealed just how disenchanted they are. “I will go once to say I have done it but I am not filled with enthusiasm to help out in a contest we are going to lose,” says one. Another adds: “What’s the point? There’s not exactly a lot of enthusiasm to knock doors just to save Starmer.”

It has severely weakened under the pressure of being in government – and in a way inconceivable before the general election and the recent succession of U-turns, scandals and failed relaunches. There’s a feeling, perhaps inside the party as much as among voters, that it is unclear what Labour stands for. Last summer’s botched welfare reforms, which culminated in Labour MPs rejecting their own government’s proposals, were probably a turning point, severely undermining the leadership’s authority even with a majority of more than 140.

A councillor from the area, as tends to be the case with by-elections, where “local” connections are highly prized. Two on the shortlist, to be chosen on Saturday, are Eamonn O’Brien, leader of Bury Council since 2021, and Angeliki Stogia, a Manchester city councillor since 2012 (and candidate for Chester South & Eddisbury in 2024).

“What I was offering the party, I think, was an alternative path to the one that the party is now on. What I was saying to them was that I think, without being arrogant about it, because of what I’ve contributed to building in Greater Manchester, I was in a strong position to fight back this different type of politics that is trying to come in and trying to win our council seats and come into Greater Manchester in a big way. I believed I was probably in a better position than anybody to fight back against that.” On balance, this is unhelpful.

No. Polling isn’t until 26 February and, with a kaleidoscope of candidates, almost anything could happen. Labour won more than half the votes at the last general election and ought to have a chance, but faces an uphill struggle with national unpopularity, the Burnham incident, and the Greens claiming it is between them and Reform UK.

Matthew Goodwin, Nigel Farage’s candidate, has previously said some controversial things about Britishness that will alienate – or galvanise – certain parts of the electorate. The Greens’ Hannah Spencer, a plumber with solid working-class credentials, will no doubt come under attack for her work with refugees. If Galloway, a formidable campaigner, enters the fray, he could sweep to victory, as he did a couple of years ago at the Rochdale by-election.

Whoever gets ahead as the anti-Farage option stands a decent chance of winning – provided their position is clear enough for tactical voting to be effective. Tories and Lib Dems will be squeezed into irrelevance.

It is difficult to imagine that things could really get much worse for him, and the result will simply confirm Labour’s predicament – but the PM’s future depends a bit on the scale of any loss. Burnham will need to campaign hard to avoid getting the blame. If Reform or the Greens stumble, and Labour performs better than expected, it could change the dynamics surrounding the future of Starmer’s leadership. But Andy Burnham will most likely emerge as the biggest winner from this fiasco.