Why is Kemi Badenoch engaging in a new culture war on the burqa?

In clear evidence she is attempting to appeal to the right, Kemi Badenoch recently announced a review of Conservative policy on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and promised the end of “lawfare” against service personnel accused of crimes as well as curbs on “activist” judges.

Over the weekend, prompted by developments in Reform UK, she also said she wouldn’t speak to any constituent who came to one of her surgeries wearing a burqa, and described sharia courts and cousin marriage as “insidious”. It feels a bit desperate…

You don’t have to be an expert engineer, as she is, to work it out. Reform UK and Nigel Farage have been eating her lunch, opening up a 10-point lead in the opinion polls, taking eight county councils from the Conservatives, humiliating Tory candidates in the Runcorn and Hamilton (Scottish parliament) by-elections, grabbing media attention (albeit not always positive) and generally behaving like the “real” opposition – more rallies, more headlines, more ideas, more presence and momentum. Even a leader as self-confident as Badenoch has cause to be worried.

Exactly what her critics on the right demand: attempting to appeal to ex-Conservatives who have been abstaining or defecting to Reform UK. This explains the “culture war” assault on the independent judiciary, net zero, and human rights legislation (plus the tentative interventions on the burqa, sharia law and cousin marriage). Badenoch does point out the complexities, such as how the ECHR affects the Good Friday Agreement, and the need to take time to get things right this far away from a general election. Badenoch’s line is that Labour and Reform both promise all things to all people, and she’s not prepared to do that.

Sources grumble that she doesn’t work hard enough, gives an arrogant impression, and that she’s not very good at Prime Minister’s Questions. There’s also frustration at the lack of eye-catching initiatives (as Tony Blair once called populist stuff), failure to take on Farage directly, and sheer fear of more heavy electoral losses to Reform.

The smaller the Tories’ representation at every tier of government, the lower their profile and relevance and the more they look like a dying party. Unlike Margaret Thatcher in opposition from 1975-79, Badenoch can’t just rely on the failures of a Labour government. Crucially, the Tories now have a formidable and unprecedented challenge from the right that makes Badenoch’s lack of urgency look fatal. All she can do is say she’s getting better at the job of leader of the opposition, which is a tough gig. One hopeful move is that she’s allowed shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, to denounce the Liz Truss era mini-Budget (without actually saying sorry).

She won the leadership election last autumn among the membership by a clear but not overwhelming margin over Robert Jenrick of 56.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent, but among MPs by only one vote over Jenrick and five ahead of third-placed James Cleverly (42, 41 and 37 MPs respectively.

According to the regular Conservative Home poll of activists, Badenoch is now incredibly unpopular given her role. She stands on a net zero approval rating, way below top of the flops Jenrick (+63), Chris Philp (+39) and Stride (+34).

A possible tricky by-election in North East Somerset and Hanham, where ex-Labour MP Dan Norris was arrested and bailed on suspicion of rape, child sex offences, child abduction and misconduct in a public office and is currently sitting as an independent having been suspended from the party. He ousted Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg at the general election, and normally this would become an easy Tory gain; but now the question is whether the Tories and Reform will fight each other, potentially letting Labour back in; or will they cooperate (formally or informally) to get Rees-Mogg back, whichever party he chooses to run for.

She's certainly the most precarious of all the party leaders. The end of the year feels like a reasonable deadline to see some progress.