How do the numbers stack up on small boat arrivals?

Small boat arrivals across the Channel were lower last month than in any August since 2019. On the face of it, this looks like some rare good news for the home secretary, at a time when the use of hotels to house asylum seekers has become a major national issue. But how good is the news really?

This August, 55 small boats crossed the Channel, compared to 75 in the same month in 2024; it was the lowest August figure since 2019. But the actual picture is a bit more complicated. There were fewer boats, but the boats tended to be bigger, with more people crammed onto them, so while the figure of arrivals was also down – to 3,500, from 4,149 – it was not down by as much as the fall in boat numbers might suggest.

Labour would have us believe it is largely due to measures it has taken to “smash the gangs” and increase cooperation with the French. Again, there may be some truth in this. The National Crime Agency claims it has disrupted a record 347 people-smuggling gangs (though that can cover a very wide definition), 25 people have had their assets frozen under new legal provisions as suspected smugglers, and there have been periodic signs, such as the one occasion French police were filmed slashing an inflatable boat, that the French might be taking a more pro-active stance. Britain has also persuaded countries such as Germany to act against those found to be storing or transporting boats that could be used in Channel smuggling.

But other factors, such as the weather and the number of migrants crossing into the EU from other countries, also play a role. Several EU countries, including Germany, have recently made it harder for undocumented migrants to cross their borders.

That is the big question. One month can be an outlier because of variables such as weather, mentioned above. For the government to argue successfully it has turned the tide, a decrease in both boats and arrivals must be maintained through the autumn. And any fall will have to be marked, because the total number of people arriving by small boat since the start of 2025, at 28,000, is up more than 40 per cent compared to last year. The numbers have accelerated since Labour took office in July 2024, reaching 50,000 in just over 400 days.

If fewer, but more heavily laden, boats are coming, the dangers are likely to increase. So far this year, 20 people have died trying to cross the Channel, making a total of 249 since 2018.

Home Office statistics show that almost two-fifths who claimed asylum in the UK in the 12 months to June 2025 arrived in small boats, the majority coming originally from long-standing trouble spots, such as Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iran and Syria. The remaining 60 per cent included those coming via other illegal means – stowed in lorries, for instance. But the majority tend to be those already legally in the UK on, say, student or family visas, seeking a way to stay indefinitely. At the same time, small boat arrivals present a particular political problem for any government because they are so visible and because it seems to many voters that they are making a mockery of UK border controls. Their accommodation in hotels, once an emergency measure, but now routine, has become a further political issue in itself.

Currently, there are 32,000 asylum applicants – not just small boat arrivals – in hotels, a figure the government says has fallen from a peak of 56,000 in the summer of 2023. This is strictly true, but the claim needs to carry the same health warning as the August small boats figure, in that the figure fell quite sharply – to 29,000 – in the last months of the Conservative government, before rising again under Labour to where it is now. This is despite the government pledging to end the use of hotels by the end of the current parliament (2029).

No, because at present, asylum seekers may apply to bring in dependents as soon as their claim has been successful, who at once become eligible for state support, including housing. The number of dependents granted permission to come reached 20,000 through 2024. The home secretary has announced plans to tighten provisions governing dependents, to bring them into line with those in other European countries. There is also a fairness aspect, as those who do not come to the UK via the asylum route have to meet strict financial and other requirements before they may bring in family from abroad.