Fact check: Jim Ratcliffe’s claims about population, manufacturing and emissions

A look at some of the statements made by the businessman.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe was speaking to Sky News (Mike Egerton/PA) (PA Archive)

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Businessman and Manchester United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe made a series of claims in an interview with Sky News, ranging from statements about the cost of energy to businesses to claims about migration, the UK’s population and benefits.

It is not clear what the basis of some of these claims are. Below is a closer look at the statements Sir Jim made.

Claim: “There’s not much manufacturing. If you look at the UK, about 25 years ago – no, about 1995 I think it was – about 25% of our GDP was manufacturing, and Germany was about the same, 25%. So we’re going back what, 30 years? Today Germany’s still up there, 20-21% of its GDP is manufacturing, in the UK it’s down at about 8%. So manufacturing’s collapsed in the UK.”

Comparing data from the World Bank, manufacturing accounted for 15% of GDP in the UK and 20% of GDP in Germany in 1995.

The proportion has fallen over time in the UK, reaching 8% in 2024. Meanwhile, it has fallen slightly to 18% in Germany.

The broader “industry” sector – which covers the manufacturing, mining, construction, electricity, water and gas industries – accounted for 24.5% of GDP in the UK and 29.3% in Germany in 1995. In 2024, it stood at 17.1% in the UK and 25.6% in Germany.

Claim: “You can’t have an economy with nine million people on benefits.”

The most recent Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) figures show there were 8.4 million people in Great Britain claiming Universal Credit (UC) as of December 2025.

Separate figures from the Department for Communities show a further 233,170 people were claiming UC in Northern Ireland in August 2025.

The combined total, although the Northern Irish figures are older, is a little more than 8.6 million claimants.

Claim: “The population of the UK was 58 million in 2020, now it’s 70 million – that’s 12 million people.”

Office for National Statistics figures show the estimated UK population mid-2020 was 66.7 million people, not 58 million. It increased to 69.5 million people in mid-2025 – up by about 2.7 million.

The UK population reached 58 million in mid-1995. It steadily increased and surpassed 59 million in mid-2001. The last time the population could legitimately be rounded down to 58 million was in 1998.

The population has increased by 12 million people since mid-1991, when there were an estimated 57.4 million people.

Claim: “Energy costs are 3-4 times (higher than in) the USA.”

Energy can mean many things, including electricity, gas, oil and coal. If Mr Ratcliffe was referring to the price that businesses pay for electricity, then he is right that prices are higher in Europe than they are in the US, however not by that magnitude. If he was referring to gas prices the figure appears accurate.

UK Government data – which it has sourced from the International Energy Agency (IEA) – measures industrial electricity prices.

The data show that in 2019 – the most recent data available for the US – average European energy prices were 7.3p per kWh – which was 43% higher than the US price that year.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration suggests that the industrial price of electricity in November 2024 was 7.85 cents per kWh. That is around 6.1p per kWh using an exchange rate from the UK Government.

If you compare that to the figures from the Government’s IEA database, it suggests that European prices were 2.3 times higher than those in the US in 2024. Three European countries have data from 2022 and 2023.

However, electricity is not the only thing required in Sir Jim’s chemicals business. The IEA suggests that oil and gas are the main sources used in the chemical sector globally, being used to make hydrogen and carbon which are the raw materials required to produce basic chemicals.

Research from European think tank Bruegel showed that while EU industrial electricity prices were 2.6 times higher than in the US, gas prices in the EU were 4.5 times higher.

Claim: “Carbon taxes … have quadrupled since 2020 and allowances have halved since 2020, and our competitors who import product don’t pay carbon taxes.”

Tom Cantillon, a senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, explained that the purpose of a carbon tax system “is to reward companies that invest in decarbonisation by ensuring that the cleanest operators face lower compliance costs.”

The EU’s system lets companies buy so-called allowances. Each allowance permits them to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide. There is a cap on the number of available allowances, and that cap reduces over time.

The cap on allowances for manufacturing installations in the EU was 1,816 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020. The cap in 2024 was 1,386 MtCO2e – a 24% reduction – however part of that drop is because the UK left the EU.

In the UK’s system many companies – including some plants linked to Sir Jim’s chemical manufacturing business Ineos – are given free allowances.

The price for EU emissions allowances was 23.56 euros per tonne on February 6 2020. On February 6 2026 the price was 78.74 euros. That is about a 3.4-fold increase.

At its lowest in 2020, the price was around 15 euros when factories had to close because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it peaked at more than 100 euros per tonne in early 2023.

The UK started its own system for trading emissions allowances after Brexit. On February 11 2026 the price for a tonne of carbon was £49.26 – around 56.64 euros at the current exchange rate, so approximately 2.4 times as high as the February 2020 EU carbon price.

Mr Cantillon added: “The idea that competitors don’t pay carbon costs is simply out of date. The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism is now live, the UK’s starts next year, and major economies from China to California run their own carbon markets.”

The World Bank said in 2025 there are 43 carbon taxes and 37 emissions trading systems around the world.