Takaichi's coalition on path to winning a majority in Japan's lower house vote, exit polls say

The governing coalition of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is almost certain to win a single-party majority in a key parliamentary election Sunday, NHK public television and other major networks say, citing their exit polls.

NHK says Takaichi’s governing coalition led by her Liberal Democratic Party could win more than two-thirds of the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of the country’s two-chamber parliament. That's a level that would allow her governing bloc to dominate house committee chairs to steer policy and budget bills.

The huge jump from the preelection share could allow Takaichi to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China and she tries to nurture ties with the United States.

Takaichi is hugely popular, but the governing Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for most of the last seven decades, has struggled from funding and religious scandals in recent years. She called Sunday’s early election only after three months in office, hoping to turn that around before her popularity fades.

Popular leader

The ultraconservative Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, pledged to “work, work, work,” and her style, which is seen as both playful and tough, has resonated with younger fans.

The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and a rising far-right, is seen as too splintered to be a real challenger. The new opposition alliance of LDP’s former coalition partner, Buddhist-backed dovish Komeito and the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is projected to sink to half of their combined preelection share of 167 seats.

Takaichi bet that her LDP party, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party, would secure a majority.

If the LDP fails to win a majority, “I will step down,” she said.

Pushing right-wing policies

A big win by Takaichi’s coalition could mean a significant shift to the right in Japan’s security, immigration and other policies, with its right-wing partner, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, saying his party will serve as an “accelerator.”

Japan has recently seen far-right populists gain ground, such as the anti-globalist and surging nationalist party Sanseito. Exit polls projected a multifold gain for Sanseito.

Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defense policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles.

She has been pushing for tougher policies on foreigners, anti-espionage and other measures that resonate with a far-right audience, but ones that experts say could undermine civil rights.

Takaichi also wants to increase defense spending in response to Trump’s pressure on Japan to loosen its purse strings.

‘Nation splitting policies’

Though Takaichi said that she's seeking the public's mandate for her “nation splitting policies,” she avoided contentious issues such as ways to fund soaring military spending, how to fix diplomatic tension with China and other issues.

In her campaign speeches, Takaichi enthusiastically talked about the need for “proactive” government spending to fund “crisis management investment and growth,” such as measures to strengthen economic security, technology and other industries. Takaichi also seeks to push tougher measures on immigration and foreigners, including stricter requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.

The early election after only three months in office “underscores a problematic trend in Japanese politics in which political survival takes priority over substantive policy outcomes,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University politics professor. “Whenever the government attempts necessary but unpopular reforms ... the next election looms.”

Impact of snow and younger voters

The governing party's expected win comes despite uncertainty over the timing of the election. The hastily called election that gave little time for people to prepare invited complaints.

Sunday’s vote also coincided with fresh snowfall across the country, including in Tokyo. Record snowfall in northern Japan over the past few weeks blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide.

Kazuki Ishihara, 54, said that she voted for the LDP for stability and in hopes for something new under Takaichi.

“I have some hope that she could do something” her predecessors could not, Ishihara said.

A 50-year-old office worker, Yoshinori Tamada, said that his interest is wages.

“I think a lot when I look at my pay slip, and I cast my vote for a party that I believe I can trust in that regard," Tamada said.

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Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.