Retail sales dip unexpectedly in November as Black Friday fizzles

Retail sales dipped unexpectedly last month as cautious shoppers prevailed and Black Friday discounts failed to boost spending in the run-up to Christmas, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total volume of retail sales was estimated to have fallen by 0.1 per cent in November. This followed a 0.9 per cent drop in October, and was a surprise decline as most analysts had been expecting a 0.4 per cent increase for the month.

Supermarket sales fell in November for the fourth month in a row, by 0.5 per cent, with retailers reporting a lower number of shoppers coming to stores.

The ONS also said the effect of Black Friday – with discounts typically stretching well beyond the specific end-of-November date – appeared to be slightly weaker this year than usual.

It was a disappointing month for non-store retailers – a cohort that consists primarily of online shops, but also includes outlets like street stalls and markets – with sales dropping by 2.9 per cent. In particular, online jewellers noted reduced demand following a period of stronger interest in gold.

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: “This year, November’s Black Friday discounts did not boost sales as much as in some recent years, meaning that once we adjust for usual seasonality, our headline figures fell a little on the month.

“Meanwhile, our separate household survey showed that although some people said they were planning to do more shopping this Black Friday than last, almost twice as many said they were planning to do less.”

Nevertheless, the data showed that department stores’ sales volumes jumped by 2.3 per cent in November, which some retailers said was down to a longer period of Black Friday discounting. The volume of sales for clothes and shoe shops also rose by 1.7 per cent, and for household goods retailers by 1.8 per cent.

Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail for Deloitte, said a second month of declining sales will be a “big disappointment for retailers, particularly with Black Friday and early Christmas shopping captured in these figures”.

“It could be that some consumers opted to delay spending decisions until after the Budget, but the rise in volumes across department stores, clothing and footwear and household goods suggests that the start of the discounting period could have enticed consumers into purchases at the end of the month,” he said.

He added that the “bigger picture of retail in 2025 showed a prolonged pressure from weak consumer confidence and challenging economic conditions”.

Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, said the cost of living remained a “dominant concern for households”, explaining that “retailers are now operating in an environment where wins increasingly come at a competitor’s expense”.

“The real test for retailers is in the run-up to Christmas,” he added.

Erin Brookes, European retail and consumer lead for Alvarez & Marsal, agreed that the battle between retailers to attract shoppers in December will be fierce.

She said: “As the golden quarter enters its final stretch, retailers will be pulling every lever to convert last-minute demand, as well as getting into clearance for categories that have not shifted sufficiently.

“Competition will be intense for each pound of discretionary spend as they race to the finish line of the festive trading period.”