How global trade is evolving – and what comes next

DHL Express UK is a Business Reporter client

As we look ahead to a new year, global trade is navigating a far more complex environment than businesses have been used to over the past decade. Economic uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions and ongoing shifts in trade policy continue to test supply chains and decision-making across industries.

Yet despite these challenges, trade is proving resilient. From my vantage point working with thousands of businesses moving goods across borders every day, I’m seeing renewed momentum driven not by scale alone, but by adaptability. Companies are rethinking where they trade, how they manufacture and the capabilities they need to operate with confidence in a less predictable world.

Against this backdrop, three developments stand out as shaping the next phase of global trade. They reflect how businesses are responding to disruption, investing in resilience and finding new routes to growth, even as conditions remain challenging.

In uncertain conditions, one of the most encouraging signals we see is the ambition of SMEs. High growth small and mid-sized businesses are continuing to expand beyond their home markets, despite several years of disruption and shifting dynamics in global trade.

Europe remains a natural first step for many UK SMEs, but we are also seeing strong interest in high-growth tailwind regions, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. These markets offer access to broader customer bases and new avenues for sustainable sales growth.

However, ambition must be matched with practical support. The role of third-party logistics providers is to make international expansion feel manageable, particularly for smaller businesses with limited internal resources. This means streamlined onboarding, faster customs clearance and digital tools and guidance that give SMEs the visibility, insight and control they need to trade with confidence.

Earlier this year, we published a new whitepaper, Global Expansion Simplified: The Ultimate Guide for SMEs, designed to help small businesses navigate the complexities of cross-border growth. Looking ahead to 2026, I expect SME participation in B2B supply chains to continue to accelerate, becoming an even more important driver of global trade.

As supply chains fragment and production cycles shorten, complexity has become one of the defining challenges for B2B trade. In sectors such as automotive, industrial manufacturing and medical equipment, delays can have significant consequences. A missing component or disrupted shipment doesn’t just inconvenience a consumer but can halt an entire production line.

As companies introduce more products, adopt shorter production cycles and expand into new markets, their reliance on fast, dependable cross-border delivery increases. Meeting this demand will require continued investment in advanced technology and infrastructure. For example, automation inside our DHL hubs enables faster sorting and more consistent service quality.

Few sectors are evolving as rapidly as life sciences and healthcare, with these industries holding some of the most time-critical and highly regulated shipments in global trade. The faster the medical field innovates, whether in advanced therapies, clinical trials or new pharmaceutical products, the more critical the logistics behind it becomes.

In many cases, the delivery of a shipment directly influences patient outcomes or clinical progress. Many of these products require exact temperature controls and handling protocols that need to extend across borders. Navigating diverse compliance requirements, managing documentation and understanding local standards are now critical components. Success for pharmaceutical manufacturers and their partners will increasingly depend on the ability to integrate technology and regulatory knowledge into one cohesive system.

The next phase of trade in 2026 will not be defined by volume alone. In a world marked by uncertainty, growth will come from a company’s ability to build resilience, manage complexity and deliver precision at every step of the manufacturing and exporting process.