The truth behind the coronavirus statistics

Are Covid cases in Manchester really going down, not up? Could deaths in Russia actually be three times the level that the official statistics say they are? What should we make of the prediction that another 170,000 people will die this winter in the United States as a result of the virus?

We are all deluged by statistics. If they aren’t about the economy, they are about political opinions, and now there is the new tsunami about public health. Yesterday was World Statistics Day, which as economist and author Tim Harford observes comes only every five years. It was started by the UN and serves as a reminder of just how much numbers seem to rule our lives. Yet we distrust them, and with reason.

A good UK example of economic statistics being wrong were the reports of a double-dip recession in 2012. That was embarrassing for chancellor George Osborne who took the blame, but subsequent revisions showed there was no second recession at all – merely a pause in growth.