Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi headed for landslide election victory, latest poll shows

Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi is headed for a landslide victory in next week’s general election, a latest poll showed.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to comfortably exceed a majority of 233 seats out of 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to an Asahi poll released on Sunday. The party’s tally was projected to be up from 198 seats.

Combined with LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), the ruling alliance will cross 300 seats, the poll showed.

A strong showing in the 8 February election would cement Ms Takaichi’s hold on her party.

After the collapse of the long-running coalition between Takaichi’s LDP and Komeito, the ruling party formed a new alliance with the Japan Innovation Party, or Ishin, giving it a one-seat majority in the lower house with support from the independents.

Ms Takaichi’s ruling coalition holds a slim majority in the powerful lower house but remains in the minority in the upper house.

The largest opposition party, the centrist Reform Alliance, is faltering and could lose as many as half of its 167 seats, the Asahi reported.

On Sunday, Ms Takaichi abruptly skipped her appearance in a television debate programme, citing a “hand injury” she sustained during campaign activities.

The long-running political debate programme aired by Japan’s public broadcaster NHK had planned to feature party leaders ahead of the election.

She said she had “rheumatoid arthritis” and her hand had become swollen.

“Actually, during the campaign rallies over the past few days, when I shook hands with people who were passionately supporting me, my hand was pulled very strongly and I ended up hurting it,” she wrote.

“I hurriedly asked the medical officer to come, had medicine applied, and received proper taping as well,” she added.

Japanese government bond yields rose on Monday as investors priced in the chance that Ms Takaichi will secure an electoral mandate to push through her "proactive" fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts.

"A huge LDP win would further strengthen Takaichi's grip on power. It won't be surprising for markets to see a higher chance of Takaichi pursuing her flagship proactive fiscal policies including a consumption tax cut," said Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Meanwhile, a doctored “campaign broadcast” attributed to Japan’s Centrist Reform Alliance has gone viral on X, formerly Twitter, raising concerns that manipulation of campaign material could mislead voters and distort electoral judgment as the election approaches.

The video, altered using artificial intelligence to depict the party’s co-chairmen Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito dancing together, has been viewed more than 1.6 million times.

The altered video showed Mr Noda and Mr Saito pushing over the podium, standing up and dancing with a fan in their hands while the original video only showed the two bowing to the sign language interpreter after their speeches.

A spokesperson for the Centrist Reform Alliance told The Yomiuri Shimbun: “We are extremely disappointed, as it runs counter to the purpose of campaign broadcasts to covey the views of a political party.”