2024 polls: Biden ahead of Trump in potential New Hampshire rematch

A new poll of voters in New Hampshire shows that President Joe Biden would easily win the state’s electoral votes if the next presidential election were held today.

According to the survey of 2,107 Granite State voters by CNN and the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre, Mr Biden tops former president Donald Trump among voters there by a margin of 52 per cent to 40 per cent.

Mr Biden also holds a commanding lead among primary voters there despite not being permitted to campaign there by Democratic Party rules which make next year’s South Carolina primary the party’s first official presidential contest.

Among New Hampshire Democrats, Mr Biden has support from 78 per cent of them, while his two declared Democratic primary opponents — author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr — each poll in single digits.

The president’s lead among primary voters in the Granite State stands in stark contrast to national poll, many of which show him tied with Mr Trump or trailing by single-digit margins.

A number of recent polls reveal that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is losing ground in the Republican primary.

The polls show Mr DeSantis dropping both on the national level and in the early voting states.

A poll by CNN and the University of New Hampshire released on Wednesday shows that Mr DeSantis has lost more than half of his backing in the state since the last poll conducted by the university two months previously.

Mr DeSantis received 10 per cent in the polls while former president Donald Trump got 39 per cent, while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy got 13 per cent support, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley got 12 per cent, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie got 11 per cent.

In Iowa, the first state to vote, a poll by Fox Business also published on Wednesday, put Mr DeSantis in second place at 15 per cent support, while Mr Trump was more than 30 points ahead.

Ms Haley came in third at 11 per cent.

In South Carolina, a separate poll by Fox Business revealed that Mr DeSantis was backed by 10 per cent and Mr Trump by 46 per cent. Ms Haley, a former governor of the state, was at 18 per cent.

On the national level, Mr DeSantis was at 12 per cent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published last week. Mr Trump was 50 points ahead on the national level.

Donald Trump has widened his lead in the Republican primary over the last few months, according to a polling average calculated by FiveThirtyEight.

As of 19 September, this is how the polls weigh the candidates’ support:

• Donald Trump: 55.8%
• Ron DeSantis: 14.6%
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 7.8%
• Nikki Haley: 6.4%
• Mike Pence: 4.8%
• Chris Christie: 2.8%
• Tim Scott: 2.5%
• Asa Hutchinson: 0.5%
• Doug Burgum: 0.4%
• Will Hurd: 0.3%

President Joe Biden is lagging behind former President Donald Trump and several other Republican candidates, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, a new poll outlining a number of hypothetical 2024 general election matchups shows.

The survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll revealed that 44 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Mr Trump, while 40 per cent said they would back Mr Biden. Another 15 per cent said they were unsure.

A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found in July that Mr Trump was supported by 45 per cent and Mr Biden by 40 per cent.

In a matchup with Ms Haley, 41 per cent said they would vote for the former South Carolina governor, while 37 per cent said they would vote for Mr Biden.

When facing Mr Scott, Mr Biden also received 37 per cent while Mr Scott got 39 per cent.

In the Biden-Haley poll, 21 per cent of respondents said they were unsure – 25 per cent said so when Mr Biden went up against Mr Scott.

Against former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr Biden came out on top with 42 per cent to Mr Pence’s 36 per cent.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was also behind the president – 42 to 38 per cent, as was biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who received 37 per cent to Mr Biden’s 39 per cent.

In all of those hypothetical races, at least 20 per cent said they were unsure.

Poll co-director Mark Penn told The Hill: “No question that President Joe Biden is showing lagging national poll numbers and that now multiple GOP candidates are ahead of him. This is a new development as [non-Trump] potential opponents like Haley get exposure.”

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since March – 42 per cent – according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The increasing support stems from Democratic voters coalescing around Mr Biden as House Republicans launch an impeachment inquiry.

Eighty per cent of Democrats approved of Mr Biden while 91 per cent of Republicans disapproved.

Donald Trump has repeatedly taken credit for the US Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to revoke a constitutional right to abortion care, a landmark ruling that has upended abortion access for millions of Americans in the months that followed.

Within his one four-year term, the former president appointed three conservative justices to the nine-member panel, tilting the court’s ideological balance in a promised effort to achieve a long-held Republican goal of overturning the 1973 decision in Roe v Wade.

In remarks to a crowd of supporters at a South Dakota rally on 8 September, the former president – who once said “I’m the one that got rid of Roe v Wade” – admitted that the Supreme Court decision has “probably cost” the GOP politically.

“Last year, those justices bravely and incredibly ruled on something that everybody has wanted for decades,” Mr Trump said. “They ruled to end Roe v Wade. That was a big thing. And it’s probably cost us politically, because the other side got energised.”

He’s made a close ally in the state’s governor. He attended the state fair, and yucked it up with Republican voters in person. But Ron DeSantis still can’t seem to make any headway against Donald Trump in Iowa.

Now, a DeSantis campaign official is telling Politico that the Florida governor’s campaign is preparing for the likelihood of a second-place finish in the first-in-the-nation caucus next year. Doing so, they say, would underscore the GOP primary as a two-person race.

John Bowden reports:

California governor Gavin Newsom is offering reporters and critics of Joe Biden a reality check in terms of the 2024 election.

Mr Newsom was speaking to the Today show for an interview when he was once again presented with murmurs that he could enter the race for president. Many in the media have speculated that the governor would launch his own bid if the incumbent president, Joe Biden, 80, reconsidered his decision to stand for another four years.

“I think the vice president is naturally the one lined up, and the filing deadlines are quickly coming to pass, and I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run,” Mr Newsom said in the interview.

He’s not wrong about the filing deadlines: The earliest hard deadline is coming up on 16 October, when the state of Nevada will cease accepting major-party entrants for the 2024 caucuses. Other states have deadlines throughout November; were Mr Newsom or another Democrat to decide to run after those deadlines, they could be locked out of receiving delegates from those primaries simply because they weren’t on the ballot.

The 2024 presidential election is nearing and Donald Trump remains the strong frontrunner, according to FiveThirtyEight.

According to the polls as of 11 September here is where the GOP candidates stand:

Donald Trump 53 per cent

Ron Desantis 13.2 per cent

Vivek Ramaswamy 7.4 per cent

Nikki Haley 5.6 per cent

Mike Pence 4.8 per cent

Chris Christie 3.7 per cent

Tim Scott 2.3 per cent

Dough Burgum 0.5 per cent

Asa Hutchinson 0.2 per cent

Will Hurd 0.2 per cent