Electoral system means Lib Dems will ‘undoubtedly’ win more seats than Tories
The reason Lib Dems will ‘undoubtedly’ win more seats next election
- Polling expert Sir John Curtice warned at the Conservative party conference that the Liberal Democrats are set to win more seats than the Conservatives, despite being slightly behind in polls, due to the electoral system.
- Recent YouGov polling shows the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent, the Conservatives on 16 per cent, and Reform UK leading with 29 per cent.
- Sir John stated that the “Johnsonian coalition” of 2019 has largely broken up, with Reform UK attracting a significant number of former Conservative voters.
- He highlighted that the Conservative Party no longer effectively occupies either the pro-EU or anti-EU political ground, a significant shift from 2019.
- Curtice advised the Conservatives to focus on issues like the economy or health service, where they retain some trust, rather than attempting to challenge Reform UK directly on immigration.