If Rafah is attacked, Israel will have nothing to show for its unwinnable war

It is said that Benjamin Netanyahu is in something of a dilemma regarding his planned attack on Rafah. On the one side is the intense pressure on him exerted by President Biden; Israel’s remaining friends and potential allies in the region; the EU and the UK; the rest of the international community; the judges at the International Court of Justice; the Pope; much of Israeli public opinion desperate for a hostage deal; and, for what it is worth to him, the Palestinian people who happen to co-habit that part of the Middle East.

This global coalition, without exception, is begging the Israeli government not to go ahead, with the inevitable loss of life among civilians, including children, and ever-deepening humanitarian crisis. That, according to the aid agencies, includes the spread of disease and a man-made famine. As ever, there lurks the possibility of renewed direct confrontation with Iran, not to mention Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and other members of the “axis of resistance”.

On the other side, we find Mr Netanyahu’s hardline Israeli nationalist political allies, their supporters, a minority in the country, and the prime minister’s short-term political future.